35%

Win Probability

-6.3

Projected Margin

CI: [-26.3 to +13.7]

Boom Potential

Chargers D/ST, Marvin Harrison Jr.

Bust Risk

Omarion Hampton (58%), Bucky Irving (48%), Juwan Johnson (56%), Jameson Williams (43%)

Start/Sit Decisions

Locked Slots (players already played):

WR: 🔒 Jameson Williams 5.7 pts

Pending Decisions:

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Sam Darnold Elite matchup vs CIN (31st vs QB), 53.5 game total. Brissett has been top-12 QB in 9 of 10 starts.

RB1: Start Bucky Irving over Tyjae Spears TB -5.5 favored, positive game script. Higher floor in plus matchup.

RB2: Start Omarion Hampton over Tyjae Spears Rookie has 16 touches/game since return. Close game script helps.

WR1: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Tetairoa McMillan Must-start WR1. CAR allows 25th-most to WRs. Experts rank JSN #3 overall WR.

TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Hunter Henry Close call. Johnson has higher MC boom ceiling (33%) vs Henry (24%). TEN allows 22nd-most to TEs.

FLEX: Start Marvin Harrison Jr. over Tetairoa McMillan XGB boom signal 42.3% (highest on roster). CIN allows 28th-most to WRs. 53.5 game total = shootout. Playing through heel injury per coach.

K: Start Jason Myers over N/A Only K on roster. SEA favored vs CAR.

D/ST: Start Chargers D/ST over N/A Only D/ST on roster. HOU offense has struggled, XGB 55% boom.

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

Slot	Player	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Confidence
QB	Jacoby Brissett	CIN	20.3	22.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
RB	Bucky Irving	MIA	14.7	14.5	MODERATE	MEDIUM
RB	Omarion Hampton	HOU	14.9	12.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	CAR	21.8	19.5	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jameson Williams	MIN	13.4	5.7	BUST	MEDIUM
TE	Juwan Johnson	TEN	10.2	9.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	CIN	12.9	14.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
K	Jason Myers	CAR	8.4	9.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
D/ST	Chargers D/ST	HOU	6.2	8.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM

Head-to-Head Matchup

Side-by-side comparison of starters by position slot

Valued Customers

113.7

Kitty's Piggy Skins

122.0

proj: 120.0

Player

ESPN

LLM

Slot

LLM

ESPN

Player

MODERATE Jacoby Brissett

ARI vs CIN

20.3

22.0

22.7

20.5

Dak Prescott MODERATE

DAL

22.7 pts ✓

MODERATE Bucky Irving

TB vs MIA

14.7

14.5

18.0

22.3

De'Von Achane MODERATE

MIA

MODERATE Omarion Hampton

LAC vs HOU

14.9

12.0

18.0

17.2

James Cook III BOOM

BUF

MODERATE Jaxon Smith-Njigba

SEA vs CAR

21.8

19.5

14.0

13.2

Jaylen Waddle MODERATE

MIA

BUST Jameson Williams

DET vs MIN

13.4

5.7

12.0

12.4

DeVonta Smith MODERATE

PHI

MODERATE Juwan Johnson

NO vs TEN

10.2

9.0

12.0

12.1

Tyler Warren MODERATE

IND

MODERATE Marvin Harrison Jr.

ARI vs CIN

12.9

14.0

FLEX

11.3

12.0

Deebo Samuel MODERATE

WSH

11.3 pts ✓

MODERATE Jason Myers

SEA vs CAR

8.4

9.0

7.0

8.4

Cairo Santos BUST

CHI

MODERATE Chargers D/ST

LAC vs HOU

6.2

8.0

D/ST

7.0

8.9

Broncos D/ST MODERATE

DEN

7.0 pts ✓

Aggressive Boom/Bust Analysis

Projections optimized for categorical accuracy (BOOM/BUST prediction) rather than MAE

Standard Margin -6.3

Aggressive Margin +28.6

Your Boom/Bust 3B / 1X

Opp Boom/Bust 2B / 3X

Your Team - Aggressive View

Player	Pos	Conf	Mode	Aggr	Std	ESPN	Δ
Jacoby Brissett	QB	0.63	BOOM	25.9	22.0	20.3	+5.6
Bucky Irving	RB	0.29	MODERATE	13.7	14.5	14.7	-1.0
Omarion Hampton	RB	0.20	BUST	3.3	12.0	14.9	-11.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	0.37	MODERATE	18.1	19.5	21.8	-3.7
Jameson Williams	WR	0.21	MODERATE	15.4	5.7	13.4	+2.0
Juwan Johnson	TE	0.38	MODERATE	9.5	9.0	10.2	-0.7
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	0.49	BOOM	23.9	14.0	12.9	+11.0
Jason Myers	K	0.24	MODERATE	11.8	9.0	8.4	+3.4
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	0.45	BOOM	18.8	8.0	6.2	+12.7
TOTAL				140.4	113.7	-	-

Opponent - Aggressive View

Player	Pos	Conf	Mode	Aggr	Std	ESPN	Δ
De'Von Achane	RB	0.16	BUST	2.3	18.0	22.3	-20.0
James Cook III	RB	0.39	MODERATE	16.0	18.0	17.2	-1.2
DeVonta Smith	WR	0.10	BUST	4.7	12.0	12.4	-7.7
Jaylen Waddle	WR	0.46	BOOM	22.4	14.0	13.2	+9.2
Deebo Samuel	WR	0.29	MODERATE	11.9	11.0	12.0	-0.1
Tyler Warren	TE	0.36	MODERATE	10.2	12.0	12.1	-1.9
Dak Prescott	QB	0.41	BOOM	31.4	20.0	20.5	+10.9
Broncos D/ST	D/ST	0.29	MODERATE	8.9	8.0	8.9	-0.0
Cairo Santos	K	0.18	BUST	4.0	7.0	8.4	-4.4
TOTAL				111.8	120.0	-	-

Methodology: Confidence = (MC_boom × 0.4) + (XGB_boom × 0.3) + (Matchup × 0.3). BOOM if conf ≥ 0.55, BUST if conf ≤ 0.34. Aggressive projects to mode extremes.

Waiver Wire

Championship weeks - roster is locked in. No waiver moves recommended.

Executive Summary

Week 17 Championship matchup against Kitty's Piggy Skins (10-5). We're down 35.3 points after Thursday games - Jameson Williams busted at 5.7 while opponent's Thursday players scored 41.0. Jacoby Brissett in the elite CIN matchup (53.5 total) anchors our comeback attempt. Key decision: MHJ in FLEX over McMillan despite injury - XGB boom signal at 42.3% is too strong to ignore against the 28th-ranked CIN secondary.

Key Insights

Jameson Williams LOCKED at 5.7 pts (Thursday BUST) - working around this
Brissett @ CIN: Week-high 53.5 game total, CIN 31st vs QBs. Must-start QB1.
MHJ in FLEX: 42.3% XGB boom (roster-high) despite heel injury. Coach confirms he'll play.
JSN: Experts rank #3 overall WR. CAR allows 25th-most to WRs.
Hunter Henry benched for Juwan Johnson - close call, Johnson has higher boom ceiling.
Opponent's James Cook has 57.3% XGB boom - main threat remaining.
We need ~108 pts from remaining starters to overcome Thursday deficit.

Matchup Status (Week 17)

5.7 - 41.0 vs Kitty's Piggy Skins

Games Completed (2)

Player	Pos	Slot	Actual	ESPN	LLM	vs LLM
Jameson Williams	WR	WR	✓ 5.7	13.4	5.7	0.0
Isiah Pacheco (bench)	RB	BE	✓ 3.2	9.8	3.2	0.0

Games Pending (15)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Jacoby Brissett	QB	QB	20.3	22.0
Bucky Irving	RB	RB	14.7	14.5
Omarion Hampton	RB	RB	14.9	12.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	WR	21.8	19.5
Juwan Johnson	TE	TE	10.2	9.0
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	RB/WR/TE	12.3	13.0
Jason Myers	K	K	8.4	9.0
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	6.1	8.0
Hunter Henry (bench)	TE	BE	10.7	10.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench)	WR	BE	12.9	14.0
Quentin Johnston (bench)	WR	BE	8.3	9.0
Rashid Shaheed (bench)	WR	BE	9.4	9.0
Sam Darnold (bench)	QB	BE	16.0	16.0
Tyjae Spears (bench)	RB	BE	9.9	9.0
Rashee Rice (bench)	WR	IR	0.0	---

5.7 Actual

113.7 LLM Total

114.4 ESPN Total

Opponent: Kitty's Piggy Skins

Opponent Games Completed (3)

Player	Pos	Slot	Actual	ESPN	LLM	vs ESPN
Dak Prescott	QB	QB	✓ 22.7	20.5	20.0	+2.2
Deebo Samuel	WR	WR	✓ 11.3	12.0	11.0	-0.7
Broncos D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	✓ 7.0	8.9	8.0	-1.9

Opponent Games Pending (13)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
De'Von Achane	RB	RB	22.3	18.0
James Cook III	RB	RB	17.2	18.0
Jaylen Waddle	WR	WR	13.2	14.0
Tyler Warren	TE	TE	12.1	12.0
DeVonta Smith	WR	RB/WR/TE	12.4	12.0
Cairo Santos	K	K	8.4	7.0
Buccaneers D/ST (bench)	D/ST	BE	5.6	---
Chase McLaughlin (bench)	K	BE	8.0	---
Chimere Dike (bench)	WR	BE	10.7	---
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (bench)	RB	BE	0.0	---
Dallas Goedert (bench)	TE	BE	10.8	---
Taysom Hill (bench)	TE	BE	10.4	---
Trevor Lawrence (bench)	QB	BE	19.4	---

41.0 Opp Actual

120.0 Opp LLM Total

126.7 Opp ESPN Total

Projected Margin: -6.3 pts

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 26% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.5% boom, 36.4% bust (this week). Context: CIN allows 2nd-most fantasy pts to QBs, game_total 53.5 (week-high), Cardinals +7 implies garbage time passing. Expert consensus has Brissett as top-10 QB. XGB bust signal is cautionary but matchup/volume override. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 22.0 pts (within 15-24 range).

Context: O/U: 53.5 | Def Rank: 31

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	13.9	16.0	20.6	+6.7
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Sam Darnold (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 31% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.3% boom, 43.8% bust. Context: Favorable vs CAR but Brissett has better matchup vs CIN. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	15.2	-	11.3	-3.8
14	ATL	14.3	-	22.3	+8.0
13	MIN	15.2	-	3.1	-12.1
12	TEN	15.2	-	17.7	+2.5
11	LAR	15.0	-	4.3	-10.8
10	ARI	16.6	-	4.9	-11.7
9	WSH	18.2	-	27.2	+8.9
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	14.9	-	8.6	-6.3
6	JAX	15.3	-	20.0	+4.7
5	TB	13.2	-	27.6	+14.4
4	ARI	13.0	-	16.1	+3.1
3	NO	14.1	-	16.7	+2.7
2	PIT	12.8	-	15.8	+3.0
1	SF	15.3	-	5.4	-9.9

Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

Bucky Irving (TB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 14.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM (historical). XGB: 12.9% boom, 48.2% bust (this week). Context: TB -5.5 favored, game_total 46.5, positive game script for rushing. XGB shows elevated bust risk but MC has 58.5% moderate probability. Trusting MC historical pattern. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.5 pts (within 8.2-20.2 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5 | Def Rank: 20

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	ATL	15.2	14.0	8.1	-7.1
14	NO	16.4	16.0	16.1	-0.3
13	ARI	11.8	12.0	16.1	+4.3
12	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	NE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	NO	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	PHI	17.5	-	25.5	+8.0
3	NYJ	17.9	-	13.9	-4.0
2	HOU	15.9	-	18.1	+2.2
1	ATL	17.3	-	14.5	-2.8

Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 17.6% boom, 37.6% bust. Context: Low 36.5 game total, committee concerns. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	SF	10.0	6.0	5.6	-4.4
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

5-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 14.9 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 16% BOOM (historical). XGB: 9.0% boom, 57.7% bust (this week). Context: HOU has 8th-best run D, game_total only 39.5, low-scoring affair. XGB heavily favors bust but rookie has shown 16 touches/game since return. Close game script helps. Mode: MODERATE (borderline BUST). Projection: 12.0 pts (within 7-17 range).

Context: O/U: 39.5 | Def Rank: 8

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	11.7	10.0	7.5	-4.2
14	PHI	12.1	8.0	14.7	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	18.6	-	13.0	-5.6
4	NYG	16.7	-	27.5	+10.8
3	DEN	12.2	-	24.9	+12.7
2	LV	15.7	-	3.5	-12.2
1	KC	14.7	-	8.1	-6.6

Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 3.2 (BUST)

Reasoning: GAME COMPLETED (DEN @ KC Thursday). Actual: 3.2 pts. On bench.

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 21.8 | LLM 19.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM (historical). XGB: 11.4% boom, 22.6% bust (this week). Context: CAR allows 25th-most to WRs, SEA -7.5 favored. Experts have JSN as must-start WR1 (#3 overall). MC and XGB both favor moderate-boom. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 19.5 pts (within 12.4-24.4 range).

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 25

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	20.6	22.0	18.3	-2.3
14	ATL	20.9	22.0	28.1	+7.2
13	MIN	21.9	24.0	4.3	-17.6
12	TEN	21.3	-	37.1	+15.8
11	LAR	23.0	-	20.6	-2.4
10	ARI	22.0	-	20.3	-1.7
9	WSH	24.5	-	22.0	-2.5
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	20.0	-	26.3	+6.3
6	JAX	17.9	-	30.2	+12.3
5	TB	15.9	-	27.2	+11.3
4	ARI	16.4	-	13.0	-3.4
3	NO	15.5	-	20.6	+5.1
2	PIT	14.4	-	18.3	+3.9
1	SF	14.7	-	19.4	+4.7

Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs SEA)

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 28% BOOM (historical). XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust (this week). Context: Bounced back in W16 with 10 targets, 73 yards, TD. Seattle's coverage not elite. Negative game script helps volume. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within 8-17 range).

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 18

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	NO	13.2	11.0	4.5	-8.7
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM (historical). XGB: 42.3% boom (highest on roster!), 22.4% bust. Context: CIN allows 28th-most to WRs, 53.5 game total (week-high), negative game script means passing volume. XGB strongly signals boom. Mode: MODERATE (high end, near BOOM). Projection: 14.0 pts. CONSIDER STARTING over McMillan.

Context: O/U: 53.5 | Def Rank: 28

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: On IR. Game completed (DEN @ KC Thursday).

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 5.7 (BUST)

Reasoning: GAME COMPLETED (DET @ MIN Thursday). Actual: 5.7 pts. Result was BUST vs 15.4 MC expected value.

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAR	13.9	18.0	26.4	+12.5
14	DAL	13.8	17.3	17.3	+3.5
13	GB	11.8	15.1	26.9	+15.1
12	NYG	12.9	-	0.0	-12.9
11	PHI	12.6	-	19.7	+7.1
10	WSH	12.1	-	23.9	+11.8
9	MIN	11.0	-	16.6	+5.6
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	TB	13.2	-	0.0	-13.2
6	KC	10.7	-	18.6	+7.9
5	CIN	11.8	-	2.0	-9.8
4	CLE	10.7	-	5.7	-5.0
3	BAL	12.9	-	6.3	-6.6
2	CHI	13.0	-	18.8	+5.8
1	GB	12.9	-	6.6	-6.3

3-game streak of beating projections
Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Quentin Johnston (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 32% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15.2% boom, 39.1% bust. Low game total (39.5) caps upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
14	PHI	8.7	-	2.8	-5.9
13	LV	10.0	-	11.3	+1.3
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	12.6	-	0.0	-12.6
10	PIT	11.7	-	9.2	-2.5
9	TEN	12.3	-	15.3	+3.0
8	MIN	13.5	-	0.0	-13.5
7	IND	14.9	-	11.0	-3.9
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	17.5	-	6.9	-10.6
4	NYG	13.8	-	23.8	+10.0
3	DEN	12.7	-	14.9	+2.2
2	LV	11.5	-	15.9	+4.4
1	KC	6.4	-	24.9	+18.5

Trending up: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 3.1 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.96)
Season high: 24.9 pts in Week 1

Rashid Shaheed (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 33% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.8% boom, 53.0% bust. Behind JSN in target pecking order. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	8.7	-	12.1	+3.4
14	ATL	8.0	-	16.7	+8.7
13	MIN	7.9	-	2.6	-5.3
12	TEN	7.8	-	0.5	-7.3
11	LAR	9.6	-	4.9	-4.7
10	ARI	10.4	-	3.3	-7.1
9	WSH	10.8	-	11.8	+1.0
8	BYE	12.2	-	14.5	+2.3
7	HOU	11.3	-	8.0	-3.3
6	JAX	10.0	-	6.8	-3.2
5	TB	9.3	-	21.4	+12.1
4	ARI	9.7	-	9.2	-0.5
3	NO	10.1	-	8.2	-1.9
2	PIT	11.3	-	15.2	+3.9
1	SF	10.6	-	9.3	-1.3

Trending up: 10.5 avg (last 3) vs 2.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 21.4 pts in Week 5

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 10.2 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 33% BOOM (historical). XGB: 18.8% boom, 56.0% bust (this week). Context: TEN allows 22nd-most to TEs, game_total 36.5 is low. XGB sees high bust risk but TE position is volatile. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 9.0 pts (within 6-12 range).

Context: O/U: 36.5 | Def Rank: 22

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	CAR	9.7	10.0	7.0	-2.7
14	TB	9.7	10.0	7.8	-1.9
13	MIA	8.7	11.0	8.9	+0.2
12	ATL	9.3	-	10.6	+1.3
11	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	CAR	8.9	-	19.2	+10.2
9	LAR	8.3	-	12.1	+3.8
8	TB	9.6	-	10.3	+0.7
7	CHI	7.5	-	12.9	+5.4
6	NE	7.9	-	1.5	-6.4
5	NYG	7.9	-	3.7	-4.2
4	BUF	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
3	SEA	10.6	-	11.1	+0.5
2	SF	9.1	-	15.9	+6.8
1	ARI	7.3	-	15.6	+8.3

Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs NYJ)

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 8.0% boom, 61.6% bust. Context: NYJ allows 28th-most to TEs, favorable matchup. Despite XGB bust signal, matchup is elite. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 35.0 | Def Rank: 28

MC (Historical): BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	BUF	10.3	5.0	2.8	-7.5
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending down: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 11.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs SEA

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 13.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 28% BOOM (historical). XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust (this week). Context: Bounced back in W16 with 10 targets, 73 yards, TD. Seattle's coverage not elite. Negative game script helps volume. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within 8-17 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	NO	13.2	11.0	4.5	-8.7
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%

Notes: On IR. Game completed (DEN @ KC Thursday).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs NO

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%

Notes: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 17.6% boom, 37.6% bust. Context: Low 36.5 game total, committee concerns. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	SF	10.0	6.0	5.6	-4.4
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

5-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 3.2

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: GAME COMPLETED (DEN @ KC Thursday). Actual: 3.2 pts. On bench.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Sam Darnold (QB) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44%

Notes: MC: 31% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.3% boom, 43.8% bust. Context: Favorable vs CAR but Brissett has better matchup vs CIN. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	15.2	-	11.3	-3.8
14	ATL	14.3	-	22.3	+8.0
13	MIN	15.2	-	3.1	-12.1
12	TEN	15.2	-	17.7	+2.5
11	LAR	15.0	-	4.3	-10.8
10	ARI	16.6	-	4.9	-11.7
9	WSH	18.2	-	27.2	+8.9
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	14.9	-	8.6	-6.3
6	JAX	15.3	-	20.0	+4.7
5	TB	13.2	-	27.6	+14.4
4	ARI	13.0	-	16.1	+3.1
3	NO	14.1	-	16.7	+2.7
2	PIT	12.8	-	15.8	+3.0
1	SF	15.3	-	5.4	-9.9

Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs NYJ

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62%

Notes: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 8.0% boom, 61.6% bust. Context: NYJ allows 28th-most to TEs, favorable matchup. Despite XGB bust signal, matchup is elite. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	BUF	10.3	5.0	2.8	-7.5
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending down: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 11.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Quentin Johnston (WR) - LAC vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39%

Notes: MC: 32% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15.2% boom, 39.1% bust. Low game total (39.5) caps upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
14	PHI	8.7	-	2.8	-5.9
13	LV	10.0	-	11.3	+1.3
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	12.6	-	0.0	-12.6
10	PIT	11.7	-	9.2	-2.5
9	TEN	12.3	-	15.3	+3.0
8	MIN	13.5	-	0.0	-13.5
7	IND	14.9	-	11.0	-3.9
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	17.5	-	6.9	-10.6
4	NYG	13.8	-	23.8	+10.0
3	DEN	12.7	-	14.9	+2.2
2	LV	11.5	-	15.9	+4.4
1	KC	6.4	-	24.9	+18.5

Trending up: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 3.1 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.96)
Season high: 24.9 pts in Week 1

Rashid Shaheed (WR) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53%

Notes: MC: 33% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.8% boom, 53.0% bust. Behind JSN in target pecking order. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	8.7	-	12.1	+3.4
14	ATL	8.0	-	16.7	+8.7
13	MIN	7.9	-	2.6	-5.3
12	TEN	7.8	-	0.5	-7.3
11	LAR	9.6	-	4.9	-4.7
10	ARI	10.4	-	3.3	-7.1
9	WSH	10.8	-	11.8	+1.0
8	BYE	12.2	-	14.5	+2.3
7	HOU	11.3	-	8.0	-3.3
6	JAX	10.0	-	6.8	-3.2
5	TB	9.3	-	21.4	+12.1
4	ARI	9.7	-	9.2	-0.5
3	NO	10.1	-	8.2	-1.9
2	PIT	11.3	-	15.2	+3.9
1	SF	10.6	-	9.3	-1.3

Trending up: 10.5 avg (last 3) vs 2.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 21.4 pts in Week 5

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability

Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability

Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability

Tyler Warren (TE): 41% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

Player	Pos	Team	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%	Threat
James Cook III	RB	BUF	17.2	18.0	BOOM	57%	31%	12%	HIGH
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	20.5	20.0	MODERATE	51%	34%	15%	HIGH
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	13.2	14.0	MODERATE	49%	36%	15%	HIGH
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	12.1	12.0	MODERATE	41%	40%	19%	HIGH
Broncos D/ST	D/ST	DEN	8.9	8.0	MODERATE	29%	45%	26%	MEDIUM
Deebo Samuel	WR	WSH	12.0	11.0	MODERATE	27%	52%	22%	MEDIUM
De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	22.3	18.0	MODERATE	13%	64%	23%	LOW
Cairo Santos	K	CHI	8.4	7.0	BUST	13%	28%	59%	LOW
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	12.4	12.0	MODERATE	9%	48%	43%	LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

James Cook III: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)

Dak Prescott: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)

Jaylen Waddle: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)

Tyler Warren: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 41% | Bust 19%)

Broncos D/ST: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)

Deebo Samuel: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 31%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 22%)

De'Von Achane: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)

Cairo Santos: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)

DeVonta Smith: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 17 | Generated: 2025-12-26 23:54

Matchup Summary

35.0%

Win Probability

-6.3

Expected Margin

113.7

My Team (LLM Proj)

120.0

Opponent (Proj)

30.7

Margin Std Dev

120.3

My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -37.6 pts | Median: +1.9 pts | Ceiling: +41.3 pts

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jacoby Brissett	QB	MED	22.0	4.3-28.0	↑15+: 66% \| ↓5-: 12%
Bucky Irving	RB	MED	14.5	5.0-23.5	↑15+: 40% \| ↓5-: 10%
Omarion Hampton	RB	HIGH	12.0	3.8-24.2	↑15+: 34% \| ↓5-: 17%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	MED	19.5	6.5-30.2	↑15+: 63% \| ↓5-: 4%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	HIGH	13.0	4.8-25.1	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 11%
Jameson Williams	WR	HIGH	5.7	4.2-26.4	↑15+: 51% \| ↓5-: 14%
Juwan Johnson	TE	HIGH	9.0	2.8-16.4	↑15+: 15% \| ↓5-: 24%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	8.0	0.9-18.1	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 28%
Jason Myers	K	MED	9.0	5.5-19.1	↑15+: 26% \| ↓5-: 7%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Sam Darnold	QB	HIGH	16.0	3.9-27.6	↑15+: 51% \| ↓5-: 15%
Tyjae Spears	RB	HIGH	9.0	2.6-18.4	↑15+: 17% \| ↓5-: 28%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	HIGH	3.2	2.3-15.2	↑15+: 10% \| ↓5-: 44%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	HIGH	14.0	3.7-21.8	↑15+: 31% \| ↓5-: 18%
Quentin Johnston	WR	HIGH	9.0	2.9-23.0	↑15+: 29% \| ↓5-: 21%
Rashid Shaheed	WR	HIGH	9.0	1.7-19.8	↑15+: 24% \| ↓5-: 27%
Hunter Henry	TE	HIGH	10.0	2.8-21.4	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 31%

IR

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust	Distribution
Rashee Rice	WR	MED	0.0	6.5-27.6	↑15+: 51% \| ↓5-: 3%

Opponent

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Dak Prescott	QB	MED	20.0	7.5-29.8	↑15+: 63% \| ↓5-: 3%
De'Von Achane	RB	MED	18.0	10.9-31.3	↑15+: 64% \| ↓5-: 3%
James Cook III	RB	MED	18.0	6.2-27.6	↑15+: 52% \| ↓5-: 4%
DeVonta Smith	WR	HIGH	12.0	4.5-24.4	↑15+: 35% \| ↓5-: 14%
Jaylen Waddle	WR	HIGH	14.0	3.0-22.3	↑15+: 36% \| ↓5-: 21%
Deebo Samuel	WR	HIGH	11.0	3.6-22.7	↑15+: 33% \| ↓5-: 20%
Tyler Warren	TE	HIGH	12.0	3.2-18.2	↑15+: 21% \| ↓5-: 21%
Broncos D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	8.0	0.9-18.0	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 30%
Cairo Santos	K	HIGH	7.0	3.8-16.2	↑15+: 14% \| ↓5-: 21%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Trevor Lawrence	QB	HIGH	18.8	8.3-30.9	↑15+: 63% \| ↓5-: 2%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	RB	LOW	0.0	0.0-0.0	↑15+: 0% \| ↓5-: 100%
Chimere Dike	WR	HIGH	10.3	2.0-20.5	↑15+: 26% \| ↓5-: 33%
Dallas Goedert	TE	HIGH	11.9	3.8-23.3	↑15+: 28% \| ↓5-: 21%
Taysom Hill	TE	HIGH	5.4	0.7-13.5	↑15+: 8% \| ↓5-: 73%
Buccaneers D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	10.1	1.3-21.1	↑15+: 26% \| ↓5-: 33%
Chase McLaughlin	K	HIGH	9.2	2.8-16.8	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 24%

Scenario Details

Player	Position	BOOM	MODERATE	BUST	EV
Bucky Irving	RB	17% @ 24.3	59% @ 14.2	25% @ 5.9	13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	27% @ 28.7	44% @ 18.4	29% @ 7.6	18.0
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	14% @ 27.6	37% @ 13.7	49% @ 7.0	12.4
Omarion Hampton	RB	25% @ 23.0	43% @ 12.0	32% @ 5.2	12.6
Jason Myers	K	25% @ 18.3	44% @ 11.9	31% @ 6.5	11.8
Juwan Johnson	TE	30% @ 14.9	45% @ 8.8	25% @ 3.8	9.4
Jameson Williams	WR	29% @ 24.3	44% @ 15.6	28% @ 5.4	15.3
Jacoby Brissett	QB	74% @ 21.4	2% @ 14.7	24% @ 6.0	17.5
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	36% @ 15.0	42% @ 8.4	22% @ 2.8	9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

Player	Pos	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	6.2	8.0	MODERATE	55.0%	29.8%	15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	12.9	14.0	MODERATE	42.3%	35.3%	22.4%
Rashee Rice	WR	0.0	0.0	BUST	24.9%	45.3%	29.8%
Jason Myers	K	8.4	9.0	MODERATE	23.2%	55.1%	21.6%
Juwan Johnson	TE	10.2	9.0	MODERATE	18.8%	25.1%	56.0%
Tyjae Spears	RB	9.9	9.0	MODERATE	17.6%	44.8%	37.6%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	12.3	13.0	MODERATE	16.9%	61.6%	21.5%
Quentin Johnston	WR	8.3	9.0	MODERATE	15.2%	45.7%	39.1%
Rashid Shaheed	WR	9.4	9.0	MODERATE	13.8%	33.2%	53.0%
Jacoby Brissett	QB	20.3	22.0	MODERATE	13.5%	50.0%	36.4%
Sam Darnold	QB	15.9	16.0	MODERATE	13.3%	42.9%	43.8%
Bucky Irving	RB	14.7	14.5	MODERATE	12.9%	38.9%	48.2%
Jameson Williams	WR	13.4	5.7	BUST	12.6%	44.9%	42.6%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	9.8	3.2	BUST	11.9%	28.2%	59.9%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	21.8	19.5	MODERATE	11.4%	66.0%	22.6%
Omarion Hampton	RB	14.9	12.0	MODERATE	9.0%	33.3%	57.7%
Hunter Henry	TE	10.7	10.0	MODERATE	8.0%	30.5%	61.6%

League Standings

Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank	Team	Record	PF (Total)	PA (Total)	+/-	This Week	Streak	Playoff %
1	Kitty's Piggy Skins	10-5	1902.3	1682.2	+220.1	41.0 vs 5.7	L1	100.0%
2	4th and pinches	10-5	1787.5	1776.8	+10.7	16.4 vs 11.4	W2	100.0%
3	Valued Customers ←	9-6	1828.5	1599.6	+228.9	5.7 vs 41.0	W5	100.0%
4	Ryan's Rowdy Team	8-7	1771.3	1741.4	+30.0	11.4 vs 16.4	W1	100.0%
5	Wookie of the Year	8-7	1717.7	1743.2	-25.5	11.8 vs 11.3	L1	0.0%
6	Meat Pistols	8-7	1553.0	1688.3	-135.3	38.0 vs 23.4	L2	0.0%
7	Torta Pounders Football Club	7-8	1765.7	1681.7	+84.1	35.2 vs 7.0	L2	0.0%
8	Moms rules	7-8	1676.2	1790.3	-114.1	11.3 vs 11.8	W1	0.0%
9	Smooth Roosters	7-8	1680.4	1675.5	+4.9	16.0 vs 28.6	W3	0.0%
10	The Warsaw Pact	6-9	1676.9	1790.0	-113.1	23.4 vs 38.0	W2	0.0%
11	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	6-9	1612.6	1705.6	-93.0	28.6 vs 16.0	L5	0.0%
12	Auto DraftKings	4-11	1704.9	1802.6	-97.7	7.0 vs 35.2	L4	0.0%

Week 17 Matchups

Away Team	Score		Score	Home Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins	41.0	@	5.7	Valued Customers
4th and pinches	16.4	@	11.4	Ryan's Rowdy Team
Wookie of the Year	11.8	@	11.3	Moms rules
Meat Pistols	38.0	@	23.4	The Warsaw Pact
Torta Pounders Football Club	35.2	@	7.0	Auto DraftKings
Smooth Roosters	16.0	@	28.6	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Cumulative Points

Week 17 Research Analysis (Midweek Update)

Thursday Games Completed (Christmas Day)

DET 24, MIN 31: Jameson Williams - 5.7 pts (BUST). Lions offense struggled.
DAL 30, WSH 23: Dak Prescott had solid game (~22 pts). Deebo Samuel quiet.
DEN 20, KC 13: Broncos D/ST dominated (139 yards allowed). Isiah Pacheco - 3.2 pts.

Key Injury Updates

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI): QUESTIONABLE (heel) but coach says "he'll play if he feels good." Returned Week 16 on limited snaps.
George Kittle (SF): Game-time decision for MNF - affects Cairo Santos value (opponent).
Jordan Love (GB): OUT (concussion) - Malik Willis starting.
Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE): Questionable but "plans to play" per reports.

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

ARI @ CIN: 53.5 total (HIGHEST), ARI +7. Shootout expected. Great for Brissett, MHJ.
TB vs MIA: 46.5 total, TB -5.5. Positive script for Irving.
SEA vs CAR: 42.5 total, SEA -7.5. JSN should feast.
LAC vs HOU: 39.5 total, LAC -1.5. Lower scoring, tough for Hampton.

Critical Lineup Notes

MHJ in FLEX over McMillan: XGB has MHJ at 42.3% boom (highest on roster) despite injury. CIN matchup is elite.
Juwan Johnson over Hunter Henry: Controversial call. Both have similar projections but Johnson has 33% MC boom vs Henry's 24%.
Jameson Williams BUST: Already locked in at 5.7 pts. We're working around this.

Opponent Analysis (Kitty's Piggy Skins)

41.0 actual points from Thursday games
Key threats remaining: De'Von Achane (18.0), James Cook (18.0), Jaylen Waddle (14.0)
Cairo Santos (CHI K) has high bust probability (59.2% XGB)

Sources

Web ()
Web ()
Web ()
Web ()

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)

Who should start at WR2 and FLEX? (JSN locked as WR1)

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ has the highest BOOM ceiling - XGB shows 42% BOOM probability in the slate's highest-scoring game (52.5 total). Coach Gannon confirmed "ready for more" reps after limited Week 16 return. McMillan scored TDs in 4 of last 5 games.

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Williams has safest floor - tied for team lead in targets, Lions fighting for #1 seed. Vikings pass D regressed to 28th in yards (243.6 YPG). MHJ too risky at 51% snaps Week 16 and only 1 catch for 14 yards.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Down 4 points, we need CEILING not floor. MHJ's 42% XGB BOOM in 52.5 total game beats Williams facing #3 pass defense. ESPN explicitly downgrades Williams as "matchup to avoid". McMillan's 5 TDs in 5 games shows elite red zone role.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Consensus is sleeping on McMillan's TD streak (5 in 5) while overreacting to MHJ injury. Williams faced same Vikings D Week 9 - only 66 yards. Brian Flores' 48.8% blitz rate neutralizes deep threats.

Fact Check

✅ MULTIPLE: "MHJ XGB 42% BOOM - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "MHJ 51% snaps Week 16 - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Game total 52.5 (ARI@CIN) - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Williams MC EV 15.3 - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Vikings #1 defense vs WR - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "McMillan 5 TDs in 5 games - VERIFIED (4 of 5 confi" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Vikings allow 243.6 YPG (28th) - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Williams 43% XGB BUST - VERIFIED" CORRECT

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] McMillan unanimous - he starts in lineup [Challenge FLOOR] Williams is safer [Concede] FLOOR is right that MHJ injury is a concern - 51% snaps is worrying

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] McMillan unanimous - agreed he starts [Challenge CEILING] MHJ 42% boom is playable [Concede] CEILING is right that MHJ's CIN matchup (Rank 4) is better than Williams' MIN matchup (#1)

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] McMillan unanimous [Challenge FLOOR] Williams floor is safe [Concede] FLOOR makes valid point about injury risk in championship week

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] McMillan unanimous [Challenge FLOOR] Williams tied for team lead in targets [Concede] FLOOR is right that MHJ 51% snaps is concerning - we need Friday practice report

Round 3: Counter Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

FLOOR attacks MHJ snaps but ignores coach quote: "ready for more". Week 16 was easing him back. Week 17 he gets full workload.

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

My 43% XGB bust for Williams looks bad, but so does MHJ's 51% snap share. At least Williams is healthy and guaranteed full workload.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

The math is simple: down 4 points, we need ceiling. MHJ boom range is 23-47 pts. Williams boom range is 16-31 pts. MHJ gives us the comeback path.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

I'm changing my WR2 pick. After analyzing Bengals secondary (Rank 4 vs WR) vs Vikings (#1), MHJ's matchup is dramatically better. McMillan in FLEX, MHJ in WR2.

Round 4: Final Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ in a 52.5 total game with 42% XGB boom is our best chance to overcome the 4-point deficit. Coach confirmed increased workload Week 17.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Williams' 8-10 target floor is safer than MHJ's binary boom-or-bust injury risk. But I acknowledge I'm in the minority given the 4-point deficit.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ's 42% boom ceiling is 2x Williams' upside. When trailing in championship, you need ceiling plays. McMillan unanimous.

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ practiced fully Friday - injury is overblown. Championship demands ceiling over floor. McMillan's 5 TDs in 5 games locks FLEX.

Round 5: Final Votes

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

FINAL VOTE: WR2: Marvin Harrison Jr., FLEX: Tetairoa McMillan

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

FINAL VOTE: WR2: Jameson Williams, FLEX: Tetairoa McMillan

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

FINAL VOTE: WR2: Marvin Harrison Jr., FLEX: Tetairoa McMillan

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

FINAL VOTE: WR2: Marvin Harrison Jr., FLEX: Tetairoa McMillan

Consensus: Majority

WR2: Marvin Harrison Jr., FLEX: Tetairoa McMillan

3/4 agents agree

Should I start Jameson Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., or Quentin Johnston at WR2 for championship week?

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Championship week demands maximizing ceiling when trailing by 8.2 points. MHJ has the HIGHEST boom probability (42.3% XGB) facing the #27 WR defense in the highest-scoring game environment (53.5 total). His ceiling range of 12.6-27.6 points and elite matchup context vastly outweigh the questionable tag.

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ has the lowest bust risk at 22.4% XGB bust, compared to Williams alarming 42.6% and Johnston 39.1%. Most critically, Williams locks Thursday - if he busts against the #1 WR defense, you cannot pivot. MHJ plays Sunday, giving maximum flexibility.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ delivers the highest championship-weighted EV despite lower base projection because his 42.3% XGB boom probability and 53.5 game total create superior upside. The 8.2-point deficit demands ceiling optimization, and MHJ combination of elite XGB boom + #27 defense + Sunday flexibility outweighs Williams risk.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Williams led DET in air yards and already beat MIN for 66 yds + TD in Week 9. MHJ has snap-count risk (51% snaps Week 16) in a meaningless game for 3-12 Arizona. XGB validation shows only 44% accuracy - 73% of high-bust predictions wrong.

Consensus: Majority

Start Marvin Harrison Jr. at WR2

3/4 agents agree

Week 17 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

11.4

Our Team MAE

17 players

9.4

Opponent MAE

9 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 10.7

$LLM Prediction Scatter$ ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	21.8	24.0	0.0	-24.0
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	20.3	21.0	0.0	-21.0
Opponent	RB	De'Von Achane	22.3	18.0	0.0	-18.0
Opponent	RB	James Cook III	17.2	18.0	0.0	-18.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	12.9	16.0	0.0	-16.0
Our Team	QB	Sam Darnold	15.9	16.0	0.0	-16.0
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	14.7	15.0	0.0	-15.0
Opponent	WR	Jaylen Waddle	13.2	14.0	0.0	-14.0
Opponent	WR	DeVonta Smith	12.4	12.0	0.0	-12.0
Opponent	TE	Tyler Warren	12.1	12.0	0.0	-12.0
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	14.9	11.0	0.0	-11.0
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	12.3	10.0	0.0	-10.0
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.4	10.0	0.0	-10.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	10.2	10.0	0.0	-10.0
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	10.7	10.0	0.0	-10.0
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.4	15.0	5.7	-9.3
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	9.9	9.0	0.0	-9.0
Our Team	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	6.2	9.0	0.0	-9.0
Our Team	WR	Quentin Johnston	8.3	9.0	0.0	-9.0
Our Team	WR	Rashid Shaheed	9.4	9.0	0.0	-9.0
Opponent	K	Cairo Santos	8.4	7.0	0.0	-7.0
Our Team	RB	Isiah Pacheco	9.8	8.0	3.2	-4.8
Opponent	QB	Dak Prescott	20.5	20.0	22.7	+2.7
Opponent	D/ST	Broncos D/ST	8.9	8.0	7.0	-1.0
Opponent	WR	Deebo Samuel	12.0	11.0	11.3	+0.3
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)

6.2

Our Team MAE

17 players

4.3

Opponent MAE

9 players

8.4

Free Agent MAE

6 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 6.1

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Free Agent	K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	0.0	-	16.0	+16.0
Free Agent	RB	Isiah Pacheco	0.0	-	13.5	+13.5
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	8.7	10.0	21.5	+11.5
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	17.4	15.0	3.8	-11.2
Free Agent	K	Eddy Pineiro	0.0	-	11.0	+11.0
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	18.8	21.0	10.6	-10.4
Opponent	TE	Trey McBride	16.8	-	6.7	-10.1
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	15.9	22.0	12.0	-10.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	14.2	12.0	2.4	-9.6
Our Team	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	4.2	12.0	4.0	-8.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.1	9.0	16.9	+7.9
Our Team	RB	Isiah Pacheco	9.1	6.0	13.5	+7.5
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	14.0	7.1	-6.9
Opponent	RB	Rico Dowdle	15.2	-	8.3	-6.9
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.1	13.0	19.3	+6.3
Our Team	WR	Jayden Reed	11.2	13.0	7.1	-5.9
Opponent	WR	DK Metcalf	13.5	-	8.2	-5.3
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.8	5.0	0.0	-5.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Patriots D/ST	0.0	-	5.0	+5.0
Opponent	RB	Michael Carter	11.0	-	6.5	-4.5
Free Agent	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	0.0	-	4.0	+4.0
Opponent	QB	Baker Mayfield	16.6	-	12.7	-3.9
Opponent	D/ST	Jaguars D/ST	5.6	-	2.0	-3.6
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	13.2	13.0	16.5	+3.5
Opponent	K	Harrison Butker	8.0	-	11.0	+3.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	7.5	4.0	5.6	+1.6
Opponent	RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	23.8	-	22.8	-1.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Chiefs D/ST	0.0	-	1.0	+1.0
Opponent	WR	Michael Wilson	13.4	-	13.2	-0.2
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	19.9	23.6	23.6	+0.0
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.1	2.0	2.0	+0.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	5.7	4.0	4.0	+0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

$xgb_position_calibration.png$

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 17 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.