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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | CIN | 20.3 | 22.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | MIA | 14.7 | 14.5 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | HOU | 14.9 | 12.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | CAR | 21.8 | 19.5 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | MIN | 13.4 | 5.7 | BUST | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TEN | 10.2 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | CIN | 12.9 | 14.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | CAR | 8.4 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Chargers D/ST | HOU | 6.2 | 8.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Side-by-side comparison of starters by position slot
Projections optimized for categorical accuracy (BOOM/BUST prediction) rather than MAE
| Player | Pos | Conf | Mode | Aggr | Std | ESPN | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 0.63 | BOOM | 25.9 | 22.0 | 20.3 | +5.6 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 0.29 | MODERATE | 13.7 | 14.5 | 14.7 | -1.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 0.20 | BUST | 3.3 | 12.0 | 14.9 | -11.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 0.37 | MODERATE | 18.1 | 19.5 | 21.8 | -3.7 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 0.21 | MODERATE | 15.4 | 5.7 | 13.4 | +2.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 0.38 | MODERATE | 9.5 | 9.0 | 10.2 | -0.7 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 0.49 | BOOM | 23.9 | 14.0 | 12.9 | +11.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | 0.24 | MODERATE | 11.8 | 9.0 | 8.4 | +3.4 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 0.45 | BOOM | 18.8 | 8.0 | 6.2 | +12.7 |
| TOTAL | 140.4 | 113.7 | - | - | |||
| Player | Pos | Conf | Mode | Aggr | Std | ESPN | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | RB | 0.16 | BUST | 2.3 | 18.0 | 22.3 | -20.0 |
| James Cook III | RB | 0.39 | MODERATE | 16.0 | 18.0 | 17.2 | -1.2 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | 0.10 | BUST | 4.7 | 12.0 | 12.4 | -7.7 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | 0.46 | BOOM | 22.4 | 14.0 | 13.2 | +9.2 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | 0.29 | MODERATE | 11.9 | 11.0 | 12.0 | -0.1 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | 0.36 | MODERATE | 10.2 | 12.0 | 12.1 | -1.9 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 0.41 | BOOM | 31.4 | 20.0 | 20.5 | +10.9 |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | 0.29 | MODERATE | 8.9 | 8.0 | 8.9 | -0.0 |
| Cairo Santos | K | 0.18 | BUST | 4.0 | 7.0 | 8.4 | -4.4 |
| TOTAL | 111.8 | 120.0 | - | - | |||
Methodology: Confidence = (MC_boom × 0.4) + (XGB_boom × 0.3) + (Matchup × 0.3). BOOM if conf ≥ 0.55, BUST if conf ≤ 0.34. Aggressive projects to mode extremes.
Championship weeks - roster is locked in. No waiver moves recommended.
Week 17 Championship matchup against Kitty's Piggy Skins (10-5). We're down 35.3 points after Thursday games - Jameson Williams busted at 5.7 while opponent's Thursday players scored 41.0. Jacoby Brissett in the elite CIN matchup (53.5 total) anchors our comeback attempt. Key decision: MHJ in FLEX over McMillan despite injury - XGB boom signal at 42.3% is too strong to ignore against the 28th-ranked CIN secondary.
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | WR | WR | ✓ 5.7 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 0.0 |
| Isiah Pacheco (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 3.2 | 9.8 | 3.2 | 0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 20.3 | 22.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 14.7 | 14.5 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 14.9 | 12.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 21.8 | 19.5 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 10.2 | 9.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.3 | 13.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.4 | 9.0 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 6.1 | 8.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 10.7 | 10.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 12.9 | 14.0 |
| Quentin Johnston (bench) | WR | BE | 8.3 | 9.0 |
| Rashid Shaheed (bench) | WR | BE | 9.4 | 9.0 |
| Sam Darnold (bench) | QB | BE | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 9.9 | 9.0 |
| Rashee Rice (bench) | WR | IR | 0.0 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | QB | ✓ 22.7 | 20.5 | 20.0 | +2.2 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | WR | ✓ 11.3 | 12.0 | 11.0 | -0.7 |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | ✓ 7.0 | 8.9 | 8.0 | -1.9 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | RB | RB | 22.3 | 18.0 |
| James Cook III | RB | RB | 17.2 | 18.0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | WR | 13.2 | 14.0 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | TE | 12.1 | 12.0 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.4 | 12.0 |
| Cairo Santos | K | K | 8.4 | 7.0 |
| Buccaneers D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 5.6 | --- |
| Chase McLaughlin (bench) | K | BE | 8.0 | --- |
| Chimere Dike (bench) | WR | BE | 10.7 | --- |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Dallas Goedert (bench) | TE | BE | 10.8 | --- |
| Taysom Hill (bench) | TE | BE | 10.4 | --- |
| Trevor Lawrence (bench) | QB | BE | 19.4 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 26% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.5% boom, 36.4% bust (this week). Context: CIN allows 2nd-most fantasy pts to QBs, game_total 53.5 (week-high), Cardinals +7 implies garbage time passing. Expert consensus has Brissett as top-10 QB. XGB bust signal is cautionary but matchup/volume override. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 22.0 pts (within 15-24 range).
Context: O/U: 53.5 | Def Rank: 31
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 13.9 | 16.0 | 20.6 | +6.7 |
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 31% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.3% boom, 43.8% bust. Context: Favorable vs CAR but Brissett has better matchup vs CIN. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 15.2 | - | 11.3 | -3.8 |
| 14 | ATL | 14.3 | - | 22.3 | +8.0 |
| 13 | MIN | 15.2 | - | 3.1 | -12.1 |
| 12 | TEN | 15.2 | - | 17.7 | +2.5 |
| 11 | LAR | 15.0 | - | 4.3 | -10.8 |
| 10 | ARI | 16.6 | - | 4.9 | -11.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 18.2 | - | 27.2 | +8.9 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 14.9 | - | 8.6 | -6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 15.3 | - | 20.0 | +4.7 |
| 5 | TB | 13.2 | - | 27.6 | +14.4 |
| 4 | ARI | 13.0 | - | 16.1 | +3.1 |
| 3 | NO | 14.1 | - | 16.7 | +2.7 |
| 2 | PIT | 12.8 | - | 15.8 | +3.0 |
| 1 | SF | 15.3 | - | 5.4 | -9.9 |
Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 14.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM (historical). XGB: 12.9% boom, 48.2% bust (this week). Context: TB -5.5 favored, game_total 46.5, positive game script for rushing. XGB shows elevated bust risk but MC has 58.5% moderate probability. Trusting MC historical pattern. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.5 pts (within 8.2-20.2 range).
Context: O/U: 46.5 | Def Rank: 20
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | ATL | 15.2 | 14.0 | 8.1 | -7.1 |
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 17.6% boom, 37.6% bust. Context: Low 36.5 game total, committee concerns. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 14.9 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 16% BOOM (historical). XGB: 9.0% boom, 57.7% bust (this week). Context: HOU has 8th-best run D, game_total only 39.5, low-scoring affair. XGB heavily favors bust but rookie has shown 16 touches/game since return. Close game script helps. Mode: MODERATE (borderline BUST). Projection: 12.0 pts (within 7-17 range).
Context: O/U: 39.5 | Def Rank: 8
MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -4.2 |
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 3.2 (BUST)
Reasoning: GAME COMPLETED (DEN @ KC Thursday). Actual: 3.2 pts. On bench.
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 21.8 | LLM 19.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM (historical). XGB: 11.4% boom, 22.6% bust (this week). Context: CAR allows 25th-most to WRs, SEA -7.5 favored. Experts have JSN as must-start WR1 (#3 overall). MC and XGB both favor moderate-boom. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 19.5 pts (within 12.4-24.4 range).
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 25
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 20.6 | 22.0 | 18.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 28% BOOM (historical). XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust (this week). Context: Bounced back in W16 with 10 targets, 73 yards, TD. Seattle's coverage not elite. Negative game script helps volume. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within 8-17 range).
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 18
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM (historical). XGB: 42.3% boom (highest on roster!), 22.4% bust. Context: CIN allows 28th-most to WRs, 53.5 game total (week-high), negative game script means passing volume. XGB strongly signals boom. Mode: MODERATE (high end, near BOOM). Projection: 14.0 pts. CONSIDER STARTING over McMillan.
Context: O/U: 53.5 | Def Rank: 28
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: On IR. Game completed (DEN @ KC Thursday).
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 5.7 (BUST)
Reasoning: GAME COMPLETED (DET @ MIN Thursday). Actual: 5.7 pts. Result was BUST vs 15.4 MC expected value.
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAR | 13.9 | 18.0 | 26.4 | +12.5 |
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 32% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15.2% boom, 39.1% bust. Low game total (39.5) caps upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | PHI | 8.7 | - | 2.8 | -5.9 |
| 13 | LV | 10.0 | - | 11.3 | +1.3 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 12.6 | - | 0.0 | -12.6 |
| 10 | PIT | 11.7 | - | 9.2 | -2.5 |
| 9 | TEN | 12.3 | - | 15.3 | +3.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 13.5 | - | 0.0 | -13.5 |
| 7 | IND | 14.9 | - | 11.0 | -3.9 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 17.5 | - | 6.9 | -10.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 13.8 | - | 23.8 | +10.0 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.7 | - | 14.9 | +2.2 |
| 2 | LV | 11.5 | - | 15.9 | +4.4 |
| 1 | KC | 6.4 | - | 24.9 | +18.5 |
Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 33% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.8% boom, 53.0% bust. Behind JSN in target pecking order. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 8.7 | - | 12.1 | +3.4 |
| 14 | ATL | 8.0 | - | 16.7 | +8.7 |
| 13 | MIN | 7.9 | - | 2.6 | -5.3 |
| 12 | TEN | 7.8 | - | 0.5 | -7.3 |
| 11 | LAR | 9.6 | - | 4.9 | -4.7 |
| 10 | ARI | 10.4 | - | 3.3 | -7.1 |
| 9 | WSH | 10.8 | - | 11.8 | +1.0 |
| 8 | BYE | 12.2 | - | 14.5 | +2.3 |
| 7 | HOU | 11.3 | - | 8.0 | -3.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 10.0 | - | 6.8 | -3.2 |
| 5 | TB | 9.3 | - | 21.4 | +12.1 |
| 4 | ARI | 9.7 | - | 9.2 | -0.5 |
| 3 | NO | 10.1 | - | 8.2 | -1.9 |
| 2 | PIT | 11.3 | - | 15.2 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 10.6 | - | 9.3 | -1.3 |
Projections: ESPN 10.2 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 33% BOOM (historical). XGB: 18.8% boom, 56.0% bust (this week). Context: TEN allows 22nd-most to TEs, game_total 36.5 is low. XGB sees high bust risk but TE position is volatile. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 9.0 pts (within 6-12 range).
Context: O/U: 36.5 | Def Rank: 22
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CAR | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -2.7 |
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 8.0% boom, 61.6% bust. Context: NYJ allows 28th-most to TEs, favorable matchup. Despite XGB bust signal, matchup is elite. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts.
Context: O/U: 35.0 | Def Rank: 28
MC (Historical): BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 12%
XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | BUF | 10.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | -7.5 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 13.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 28% BOOM (historical). XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust (this week). Context: Bounced back in W16 with 10 targets, 73 yards, TD. Seattle's coverage not elite. Negative game script helps volume. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within 8-17 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%
Notes: On IR. Game completed (DEN @ KC Thursday).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 9.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%
Notes: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 17.6% boom, 37.6% bust. Context: Low 36.5 game total, committee concerns. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 3.2
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%
Notes: GAME COMPLETED (DEN @ KC Thursday). Actual: 3.2 pts. On bench.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44%
Notes: MC: 31% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.3% boom, 43.8% bust. Context: Favorable vs CAR but Brissett has better matchup vs CIN. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 15.2 | - | 11.3 | -3.8 |
| 14 | ATL | 14.3 | - | 22.3 | +8.0 |
| 13 | MIN | 15.2 | - | 3.1 | -12.1 |
| 12 | TEN | 15.2 | - | 17.7 | +2.5 |
| 11 | LAR | 15.0 | - | 4.3 | -10.8 |
| 10 | ARI | 16.6 | - | 4.9 | -11.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 18.2 | - | 27.2 | +8.9 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 14.9 | - | 8.6 | -6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 15.3 | - | 20.0 | +4.7 |
| 5 | TB | 13.2 | - | 27.6 | +14.4 |
| 4 | ARI | 13.0 | - | 16.1 | +3.1 |
| 3 | NO | 14.1 | - | 16.7 | +2.7 |
| 2 | PIT | 12.8 | - | 15.8 | +3.0 |
| 1 | SF | 15.3 | - | 5.4 | -9.9 |
Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 10.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 12%
XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62%
Notes: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 8.0% boom, 61.6% bust. Context: NYJ allows 28th-most to TEs, favorable matchup. Despite XGB bust signal, matchup is elite. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | BUF | 10.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | -7.5 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 9.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39%
Notes: MC: 32% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15.2% boom, 39.1% bust. Low game total (39.5) caps upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | PHI | 8.7 | - | 2.8 | -5.9 |
| 13 | LV | 10.0 | - | 11.3 | +1.3 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 12.6 | - | 0.0 | -12.6 |
| 10 | PIT | 11.7 | - | 9.2 | -2.5 |
| 9 | TEN | 12.3 | - | 15.3 | +3.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 13.5 | - | 0.0 | -13.5 |
| 7 | IND | 14.9 | - | 11.0 | -3.9 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 17.5 | - | 6.9 | -10.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 13.8 | - | 23.8 | +10.0 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.7 | - | 14.9 | +2.2 |
| 2 | LV | 11.5 | - | 15.9 | +4.4 |
| 1 | KC | 6.4 | - | 24.9 | +18.5 |
Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 9.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53%
Notes: MC: 33% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.8% boom, 53.0% bust. Behind JSN in target pecking order. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 8.7 | - | 12.1 | +3.4 |
| 14 | ATL | 8.0 | - | 16.7 | +8.7 |
| 13 | MIN | 7.9 | - | 2.6 | -5.3 |
| 12 | TEN | 7.8 | - | 0.5 | -7.3 |
| 11 | LAR | 9.6 | - | 4.9 | -4.7 |
| 10 | ARI | 10.4 | - | 3.3 | -7.1 |
| 9 | WSH | 10.8 | - | 11.8 | +1.0 |
| 8 | BYE | 12.2 | - | 14.5 | +2.3 |
| 7 | HOU | 11.3 | - | 8.0 | -3.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 10.0 | - | 6.8 | -3.2 |
| 5 | TB | 9.3 | - | 21.4 | +12.1 |
| 4 | ARI | 9.7 | - | 9.2 | -0.5 |
| 3 | NO | 10.1 | - | 8.2 | -1.9 |
| 2 | PIT | 11.3 | - | 15.2 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 10.6 | - | 9.3 | -1.3 |
James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability
Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability
Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability
Tyler Warren (TE): 41% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook III | RB | BUF | 17.2 | 18.0 | BOOM | 57% | 31% | 12% | HIGH |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 20.5 | 20.0 | MODERATE | 51% | 34% | 15% | HIGH |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | MIA | 13.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 49% | 36% | 15% | HIGH |
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | 12.1 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 41% | 40% | 19% | HIGH |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | DEN | 8.9 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 29% | 45% | 26% | MEDIUM |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | WSH | 12.0 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 27% | 52% | 22% | MEDIUM |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 22.3 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 13% | 64% | 23% | LOW |
| Cairo Santos | K | CHI | 8.4 | 7.0 | BUST | 13% | 28% | 59% | LOW |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 12.4 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 9% | 48% | 43% | LOW |
James Cook III: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)
Dak Prescott: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)
Jaylen Waddle: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)
Tyler Warren: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 41% | Bust 19%)
Broncos D/ST: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)
Deebo Samuel: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 31%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 22%)
De'Von Achane: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)
Cairo Santos: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)
DeVonta Smith: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)
Win Probability
Floor: -37.6 pts | Median: +1.9 pts | Ceiling: +41.3 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 22.0 | 4.3-28.0 | ↑15+: 66% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | MED | 14.5 | 5.0-23.5 | ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 12.0 | 3.8-24.2 | ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 19.5 | 6.5-30.2 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 13.0 | 4.8-25.1 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 5.7 | 4.2-26.4 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.8-16.4 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 24% | |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.0 | 0.9-18.1 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 9.0 | 5.5-19.1 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 7% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | QB | HIGH | 16.0 | 3.9-27.6 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.6-18.4 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | HIGH | 3.2 | 2.3-15.2 | ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 44% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 3.7-21.8 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.9-23.0 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | HIGH | 9.0 | 1.7-19.8 | ↑15+: 24% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.8-21.4 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 31% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 0.0 | 6.5-27.6 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 3% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | MED | 20.0 | 7.5-29.8 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MED | 18.0 | 10.9-31.3 | ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| James Cook III | RB | MED | 18.0 | 6.2-27.6 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 4.5-24.4 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 3.0-22.3 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | HIGH | 11.0 | 3.6-22.7 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Tyler Warren | TE | HIGH | 12.0 | 3.2-18.2 | ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.0 | 0.9-18.0 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 30% | |
| Cairo Santos | K | HIGH | 7.0 | 3.8-16.2 | ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 21% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | HIGH | 18.8 | 8.3-30.9 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 2% | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% | |
| Chimere Dike | WR | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.0-20.5 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | HIGH | 11.9 | 3.8-23.3 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Taysom Hill | TE | HIGH | 5.4 | 0.7-13.5 | ↑15+: 8% | ↓5-: 73% | |
| Buccaneers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 10.1 | 1.3-21.1 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| Chase McLaughlin | K | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.8-16.8 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 24% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 17% @ 24.3 | 59% @ 14.2 | 25% @ 5.9 | 13.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 27% @ 28.7 | 44% @ 18.4 | 29% @ 7.6 | 18.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 14% @ 27.6 | 37% @ 13.7 | 49% @ 7.0 | 12.4 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 25% @ 23.0 | 43% @ 12.0 | 32% @ 5.2 | 12.6 |
| Jason Myers | K | 25% @ 18.3 | 44% @ 11.9 | 31% @ 6.5 | 11.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 30% @ 14.9 | 45% @ 8.8 | 25% @ 3.8 | 9.4 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 29% @ 24.3 | 44% @ 15.6 | 28% @ 5.4 | 15.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 74% @ 21.4 | 2% @ 14.7 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 36% @ 15.0 | 42% @ 8.4 | 22% @ 2.8 | 9.5 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 6.2 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 55.0% | 29.8% | 15.2% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 12.9 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 42.3% | 35.3% | 22.4% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | BUST | 24.9% | 45.3% | 29.8% |
| Jason Myers | K | 8.4 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 23.2% | 55.1% | 21.6% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 10.2 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 18.8% | 25.1% | 56.0% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 9.9 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 17.6% | 44.8% | 37.6% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 12.3 | 13.0 | MODERATE | 16.9% | 61.6% | 21.5% |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 8.3 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 15.2% | 45.7% | 39.1% |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 9.4 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 13.8% | 33.2% | 53.0% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 20.3 | 22.0 | MODERATE | 13.5% | 50.0% | 36.4% |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 15.9 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 13.3% | 42.9% | 43.8% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 14.7 | 14.5 | MODERATE | 12.9% | 38.9% | 48.2% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.4 | 5.7 | BUST | 12.6% | 44.9% | 42.6% |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 9.8 | 3.2 | BUST | 11.9% | 28.2% | 59.9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 21.8 | 19.5 | MODERATE | 11.4% | 66.0% | 22.6% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 14.9 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 9.0% | 33.3% | 57.7% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 10.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 8.0% | 30.5% | 61.6% |
Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-5 | 1902.3 | 1682.2 | +220.1 | 41.0 vs 5.7 | L1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 10-5 | 1787.5 | 1776.8 | +10.7 | 16.4 vs 11.4 | W2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 9-6 | 1828.5 | 1599.6 | +228.9 | 5.7 vs 41.0 | W5 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8-7 | 1771.3 | 1741.4 | +30.0 | 11.4 vs 16.4 | W1 | 100.0% |
| 5 | Wookie of the Year | 8-7 | 1717.7 | 1743.2 | -25.5 | 11.8 vs 11.3 | L1 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Meat Pistols | 8-7 | 1553.0 | 1688.3 | -135.3 | 38.0 vs 23.4 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-8 | 1765.7 | 1681.7 | +84.1 | 35.2 vs 7.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 7-8 | 1676.2 | 1790.3 | -114.1 | 11.3 vs 11.8 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Smooth Roosters | 7-8 | 1680.4 | 1675.5 | +4.9 | 16.0 vs 28.6 | W3 | 0.0% |
| 10 | The Warsaw Pact | 6-9 | 1676.9 | 1790.0 | -113.1 | 23.4 vs 38.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-9 | 1612.6 | 1705.6 | -93.0 | 28.6 vs 16.0 | L5 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-11 | 1704.9 | 1802.6 | -97.7 | 7.0 vs 35.2 | L4 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 41.0 | @ | 5.7 | Valued Customers |
| 4th and pinches | 16.4 | @ | 11.4 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| Wookie of the Year | 11.8 | @ | 11.3 | Moms rules |
| Meat Pistols | 38.0 | @ | 23.4 | The Warsaw Pact |
| Torta Pounders Football Club | 35.2 | @ | 7.0 | Auto DraftKings |
| Smooth Roosters | 16.0 | @ | 28.6 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
No waiver recommendations this week.
No major injury concerns.
Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 21.8 | 24.0 | 0.0 | -24.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 20.3 | 21.0 | 0.0 | -21.0 |
| Opponent | RB | De'Von Achane | 22.3 | 18.0 | 0.0 | -18.0 |
| Opponent | RB | James Cook III | 17.2 | 18.0 | 0.0 | -18.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 12.9 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Sam Darnold | 15.9 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 14.7 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Jaylen Waddle | 13.2 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Opponent | WR | DeVonta Smith | 12.4 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Tyler Warren | 12.1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 14.9 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 12.3 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.4 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 10.2 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 10.7 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.4 | 15.0 | 5.7 | -9.3 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 9.9 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 6.2 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Quentin Johnston | 8.3 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashid Shaheed | 9.4 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Opponent | K | Cairo Santos | 8.4 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.8 | 8.0 | 3.2 | -4.8 |
| Opponent | QB | Dak Prescott | 20.5 | 20.0 | 22.7 | +2.7 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Broncos D/ST | 8.9 | 8.0 | 7.0 | -1.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Deebo Samuel | 12.0 | 11.0 | 11.3 | +0.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | K | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 0.0 | - | 16.0 | +16.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 0.0 | - | 13.5 | +13.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.7 | 10.0 | 21.5 | +11.5 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.4 | 15.0 | 3.8 | -11.2 |
| Free Agent | K | Eddy Pineiro | 0.0 | - | 11.0 | +11.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 18.8 | 21.0 | 10.6 | -10.4 |
| Opponent | TE | Trey McBride | 16.8 | - | 6.7 | -10.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 15.9 | 22.0 | 12.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 14.2 | 12.0 | 2.4 | -9.6 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 4.2 | 12.0 | 4.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.1 | 9.0 | 16.9 | +7.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.1 | 6.0 | 13.5 | +7.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 14.0 | 7.1 | -6.9 |
| Opponent | RB | Rico Dowdle | 15.2 | - | 8.3 | -6.9 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.1 | 13.0 | 19.3 | +6.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.1 | -5.9 |
| Opponent | WR | DK Metcalf | 13.5 | - | 8.2 | -5.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.8 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Patriots D/ST | 0.0 | - | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Michael Carter | 11.0 | - | 6.5 | -4.5 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Baker Mayfield | 16.6 | - | 12.7 | -3.9 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Jaguars D/ST | 5.6 | - | 2.0 | -3.6 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.2 | 13.0 | 16.5 | +3.5 |
| Opponent | K | Harrison Butker | 8.0 | - | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 7.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 | +1.6 |
| Opponent | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.8 | - | 22.8 | -1.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chiefs D/ST | 0.0 | - | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Michael Wilson | 13.4 | - | 13.2 | -0.2 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 19.9 | 23.6 | 23.6 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.